Hlađa hugann inn í tölvu. (Hvađ skildi ţađ vera sem hér er kallađ hugur? Jg) Viđ skiljum ekki hvort viđ erum raunveruleg. (Hvađ er ađ vera raunverulegur? Jg) Skiljum ekki raunveruleikann – erum viđ sýndarveruleiki? – hvernig á ađ skilja ţađ?


Ţú ert sýndarmynd og eđlisfrćđin getur sannađ ţađ. (Allt bendir til ađ ţađ sé rétt. Jg)

You are a Simulation & Physics Can Prove It:

George Smoot at TEDxSalford
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chfoo9NBEow

Viđ vitum allir, ađ efni er ekki til, efni er ađeins orkumynd, sýndarveruleiki. jg

Klikka mynd, ţá stćrri

sim-01

Hlađa hugann inn í tölvu. (Hvađ skildi ţađ vera sem hér er kallađ hugur? Jg)

sim-02

Viđ skiljum ekki hvort viđ erum raunveruleg. (Hvađ er ađ vera raunverulegur? Jg)

sim-03

Viđ erum illa til ţess fallin ađ skilja raunveruleikann – erum viđ sýndarveruleiki? – (Hvernig á ađ skilja ţađ? jg)

sim-04

Mynd af heilanum tekin á tíma, 45 mínútur af tengingum í mannsheila.
Textauppskrift
00:00
Translator: Robert Tucker Reviewer: Helena Bedalli
00:16
Thank you, it's a pleasure to be here.
00:18
They asked me if I wanted a drink before I came on
00:20
and I asked for a pint but they gave me water.
00:23
(Laughter)
00:24
So, following the other speakers I have a change of pace,
00:27
a little bit of a fun talk.
00:29
And what I am going try and do is convince you you're a stimulation,
00:32
and that physics can prove it, okay?
00:35
(Laughter)
00:36
So, instead of a usual uplifting talk, this is a different kind of talk.
00:39
Okay, so, there's one thing you know for certain,
00:43
that is that you exist as a flesh and blood human being;
00:46
my goal is to convince you otherwise. Okay?
00:50
So, logic is not going to be enough,
00:52
you guys are going to be simulation deniers,
00:56
there's just no way round it.
00:58
So, my actual goal will be to actually create a sliver of doubt in your minds,
01:01
so that you actually think about this, and what it might mean. Okay?
01:06
So, here's is the first check about simulations.
01:09
How many of you have ever played a computer game?
01:11
Just raise your hands.
01:13
Ah, alright.
01:14
So, did you do it against simulated player or simulated players?
01:18
Or, in fact, was it you, several people plus simulated people?
01:23
Right. And what role did you take? Was it a pawn or a hero?
01:27
What role do you have in life? Is it pawn or hero?
01:30
Right. Are you the king, for example?
01:33
(Laughter)
01:34
I don't see him here... but...
01:38
Now, the other thing you might ask, if you were a social scientist,
01:41
or other kind of scientist like a cosmologist:
01:43
Would you like to run realistic simulations
01:45
to test and develop your theories? Likewise for political candidates.
01:48
Right? So, I'm just trying to see there's motivation for it.
01:52
And then the question is: Are computation and simulation capabilities
01:57
increasing over time?
01:59
So, think of the HetNOS, think about Moore's law,
02:02
think about what computer you had when you were young
02:04
and what you have on you now, not that you're not all young still.
02:07
Okay, that's just setting you up for having the doubt.
02:10
Okay, so we'll take a little journey into philosophy.
02:14
Solipsism is the idea that one's own mind is the only thing that's sure to exist.
02:19
It turns out, people have been studying this for decades,
02:22
and realizes both irrefutable and indefensible at the same time,
02:27
so have this point of view,
02:29
and that it's not a falsifiable hypothesis,
02:32
there are people who work on this issue.
02:34
So, there doesn't seem to be any imaginable disproof that you can have,
02:38
so even if you have a Solipsan, he dies,
02:40
you can't falsify his belief, because he's not there to do it.
02:44
This is a pragmatic dead end, it's kind of like what we have on TV now,
02:47
which is, you know, zombie philosophy.
02:52
But there is an opposite, that is philosophical zombies.
02:57
There's a slight use to philosophical zombies.
02:59
So what is the idea here?
03:02
The philosophical zombie is a hypothetical being
03:04
that in this thing what you all thought a normal human being,
03:07
that is everybody you think you are, you know what you think you are,
03:10
except that it lacks conscious experience, qualia or sentience.
03:14
So, if you take a philosophical zombie and poke it with a sharp object,
03:18
it doesn't feel any pain, however, it behaves exactly as if it does.
03:22
It would say "ouch" and do all the usual kind of things.
03:26
So, what the zombie is there for, is to support the idea
03:30
that the world includes two kinds of things: the mental and the physical,
03:34
or the concepts and the physical world around you.
03:38
And so that's the idea.
03:40
So, we have in cosmology, lots of things. We have the anthropic principal,
03:44
that is, a philosophical concept that the universe must be compatible
03:47
with conscious life that observes it.
03:49
And there's a strong version and a weak version.
03:51
One of them that says the universe is compelled to have conscious life emerge,
03:55
and the other says that the universe is fine-tuned for life to be necessary.
04:00
And this is pretty much in line with a lot of even more specific kind of ideas,
04:05
from conservative Christianity and Islam, that there's intelligent design,
04:11
or that there could be like a simulation. I'm working on you... so....
04:16
And we also have the idea of multiverses,
04:19
that there are many different kinds... there's a metauniverse
04:21
and there's many possible universes inside of it.
04:24
And there are different reasons for that, quantum mechanics,
04:27
but also a way to explain whether physical constants happen to be the ones
04:30
that make this auditorium possible.
04:33
And so, you know, one way is to have that many real universes,
04:38
the other way is just to make a lot of simulations.
04:40
So, your choice. Okay, so now we move on.
04:43
Here's the crux of the arguments,
04:45
and these arguments have been around for more than 30 years,
04:49
they were first published 30 years ago,
04:52
and what people went to a lot of trouble to show,
04:55
that one of these three things is extremely likely to be true.
04:58
So, you get your choice between No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3,
05:01
just like the doors, look what's behind each door.
05:04
The first one is: Human civilization is unlikely
05:07
to reach a level of technological maturity
05:09
capable of producing simulated realities, or it's physically impossible.
05:13
Okay, so we made some progress in 30 years and I'll mention that.
05:17
The second is: Comparable civilizations throughout the universe
05:21
which do reach that capability
05:24
will choose not to make simulations
05:27
in such a large scale that, in fact, the probability of being a simulated being
05:32
is much higher than probability of being a real being.
05:34
So, those are your choices, right --
05:39
there's some other choices, but they're extraordinarily unlikely,
05:41
and we can pretty much rule them out.
05:44
And the 3rd choice is: Any entities with our general set of experiences
05:47
are almost certainly to be living in a simulation.
05:50
That would be us. Right? Okay? In case you guys aren't paying attention.
05:54
(Chuckles)
05:56
Okay. So, let's talk about making simulator realities by humans.
06:00
So, will humans produce realistic simulations?
06:03
And the answer is yes.
06:05
I have to keep coming back because I just wrote this talk
06:07
and so I don't remember what I have to say.
06:10
And, so, the answer to that is clearly yes, you guys already proved it,
06:15
because there's a lot of money to be made in making computer games,
06:18
simulated realities.
06:20
And the better the simulator reality, the more people you get involved in it.
06:23
There's a lot of entertainment, we have a lot of animated movies.
06:26
Now, we're going to have animated interactive movies
06:29
and videos and pornography.
06:32
So, you know, you can't rule out pornography,
06:34
in the early days of the Internet, pornography was the No. 1 commerce,
06:39
it was roughly half the commerce in the Internet in the early days.
06:42
And even today, 50% of the bits that are transmitted on the Internet
06:46
are transmitted for porn.
06:49
So, you can wonder: Why is it? Well, originally stories
06:51
and then there got to be pictures, and then there got to be videos,
06:54
pretty soon there'll be interactive videos.
06:56
So, it's clear there is a tremendous financial motivation,
06:59
and especially here in Media City,
07:01
where people make their living out of these kind of things.
07:03
So, how... I'm not sure which of the three, But OK.
07:09
How detailed and how accurate will the simulations be?
07:12
And the answer turns out, as we know from experience,
07:15
computation power is the first issue,
07:17
you have to have tremendously good computation power
07:19
to make a really good quality simulation,
07:22
and good programming, that is good software,
07:24
to explain what's going on, that's the second.
07:26
But, clearly we're making progress, just look at the games, look at PONG,
07:31
and look at that the kind of video games we have now. So, we'll see.
07:36
What about simulations by other civilizations?
07:39
So, now we know a lot more about this than we did 30 years ago.
07:42
We've made tremendous progress.
07:44
We've discovered more than 2,000 other stars
07:47
that have planetary systems around them.
07:49
And we know there is at least on the order of a billion or more habitable planets
07:54
in our galaxy, and there's about a 100 billion galaxies
07:57
for around 10^20 to 10^22 depending what your range
08:01
possible sites for life and then advanced civilizations in the universe.
08:06
So, what are the chances that the earth is the most advanced,
08:10
the most computationally powerful.
08:12
Well, the odds, you got to be really, pretty much thinking you're special,
08:17
to think that the odds are that we're the top.
08:25
So, the question is: Will advanced beings run simulations?
08:32
And, in fact, will simulated beings run simulations?
08:35
If we're simulated, are we running simulations in our simulations,
08:38
simulations all the way down? If you know the things.
08:42
So, even the people running our simulation don't know if they're a simulation or not.
08:50
It's interesting, because it creates ethics and a bunch of things
08:54
because there might be somebody watching you.
08:57
So, are ethical considerations likely to stop every single civilization
09:01
from running simulations and running large numbers of simulations?
09:05
Well, the answer I think is "no".
09:08
What if doing simulations is likely to say what we think are real lives?
09:11
Right? We're willing to do the simulations
09:13
even though they're being strapped in that simulation, right?
09:16
Conscious beings.
09:17
And the other thing you might consider is how do human beings
09:20
treat what they think are real human beings.
09:23
How's the ethical treatment on our Earth?
09:26
And how much more is society likely to advance
09:28
before we're doing
09:31
very advanced simulations of civilizations and beings?
09:36
So, we'll probably all be in a simulation. The lights are not on enough in here,
09:40
but look to the left and look to the right,
09:42
if there's anybody here you think is a real person, this is a random sample,
09:46
then you're probably not. (Laughter)
09:50
But, you know, If you think you're a social scientist
09:53
or an anthropologist or something, and you want to run
09:56
and see how the civilizations rise and fall,
09:58
you'll run simulations with up to billions of people.
10:02
And you will run many of those simulations,
10:04
so it's not so hard to imagine you'll get up to the level
10:07
of 10^12:1 simulated beings to unsimulated beings,
10:12
that's why the probability becomes fairly likely
10:14
that any being that has a behavior or activities and experiences like us
10:19
is simulated.
10:22
Sorry, I got some sunscreen in my eye.
10:26
Put on sunscreen this morning in case it was an unusual day in England.
10:29
(Laughter)
10:32
And I got a little in my eye here.
10:34
So let's talk about how we're going to do the simulations on the Earth.
10:39
This is part of going back to convince you
10:42
that we're going to have realistic simulations
10:43
and we're going to have artificial reality to go with it.
10:47
So, can we take a real brain and make it into a virtual mind?
10:50
And the answer is: So, here is the purple real brain,
10:54
and the neurons behind it, it's this neural net,
10:57
it's the regional neural net, as far as we're concerned.
11:00
And then on the left, yeah your left,
11:03
there is the beginnings of a mapping of a brain,
11:07
so that I can take and map that brain, and just place it into a computer.
11:11
So, how's that going to work?
11:12
The answer is, it's going to work just fine,
11:15
because we're there to the point where we can do it now.
11:18
So, here is a high-resolution, 45-minute brain scan
11:22
that was done in February.
11:24
And 45 minutes, that's how long you have to hold the person's head still,
11:28
in order to make a map to this level.
11:31
And what you can see here are the main --
11:33
Let's see if the laser pointer works -- -- No --
11:35
So, you can see here the main highways in your brain.
11:39
They're mapped out by this, and this is basically an MRI
11:43
I got a scan of my brain done and I was really impressed,
11:46
to prove that I had a brain, but one of my friends got an fMRI
11:49
to prove that his brain worked. (Laughter)
11:53
The thing that's impressive about this
11:56
is that the MRI's are getting so good now,
12:00
you can map to the individual neuron level.
12:03
The problem is there's a lot of neurons,
12:05
so you have to hold the head still for a long time,
12:07
and that's an advance in the ability to do the mapping,
12:10
and also in the software for doing that mapping.
12:13
And, so, that's where we are today.
12:15
If we can hold the person still long enough, if we can find a volunteer
12:18
that we can put, you know,
12:20
the little plastic thing on their head, to hold their head still for some days,
12:24
which is a little bit of a problem, we could probably go ahead
12:27
and map their entire brain,
12:30
and then just transform that map into a computer model,
12:33
and we would have that person's mind downloaded into a computer.
12:37
This is coming and this is coming soon,
12:40
just like it's now possible for the order of ÂŁ1,000 to get your DNA mapped,
12:47
it's going to cost you something,
12:49
in about 30 years it's going to be possible
12:52
to download your brain into a computer for about ÂŁ1,000 pounds,
12:56
plus inflation. (Laughter)
13:00
Could go up, could go down. Right?
13:02
But there's tremendous advances in technology
13:05
and these are making it possible to do things that before we were without.
13:08
So, I have quote from a Google expert,
13:10
we'll be uploading entire minds to computers in 2045.
13:13
He also says we'll do bodies too, I'm thinking we won't do bodies,
13:17
what we'll do is we'll take that mind and keep it from going out of its mind,
13:22
we'll put it on artificial reality,
13:23
it's in the computer, it's going to get bored,
13:25
wants entertainment, wants social interactions,
13:28
so we're going to create artificial realities.
13:30
Now, in the old days, we'd make a thing like that,
13:32
if you remember the matrix. Right?
13:34
Ones and zeros, now, in fact, we may use quantum computers,
13:37
so we'll have entangled states,
13:39
but, in fact, it'll be some kind of a complicated environment
13:41
where we can interact socially, because people want to be social,
13:45
so there'll have to be thousands of people to interact with,
13:47
and there'll have to be all kinds of other things
13:50
in order to make that artificial environment
13:52
sort of realistic and keep you going.
13:54
And remember, when you download your brain,
13:56
you're going to think about a million times faster,
13:59
you're going to experience life about a million times faster.
14:01
It's going to be a very different kind of a situation.
14:04
You know? The idea of going back and machines
14:05
and go out in the real world where things are still slow slow,
14:08
you're going to get tired of doing that.
14:11
And the size of simulated porn isn't so good in the real world.
14:16
Okay, so, now, the other thing I have to do
14:19
is to attack your certainty.
14:23
So, I have to point out to you, human beings are not good at figuring out
14:27
if they're real.
14:29
So, your mind is really not equipped
14:31
for addressing this and many other important questions.
14:34
So, the first question I'm going to give you
14:36
is count the number black dots.
14:38
(Laughter)
14:40
It's a still picture and there's no video.
14:50
Here we go. You see this picture?
14:53
How many of you see the horse in the picture?
14:56
How many of you cannot see the horse in the picture?
14:59
Once you see the horse, it's hard not to see the horse.
15:02
And I want to show a picture of an object and ask you: Can it be real?
15:07
And then I'm going to tell you, it's a photograph,
15:09
the watch is real, the paper's real, the desk is real,
15:13
Is that object real?
15:15
Well, it's a photograph, so it's a real in some sense,
15:18
as is this, and for me, this object flips back and forth.
15:25
Here's the real version of that, made out of 2x4s, focused at different angles,
15:34
and you see it's an optical illusion where your eye puts it together.
15:38
And here's another example, and this is another example, just for fun,
15:44
because you know it's just rotated,
15:46
but the first response is: Phew, that's weird.
15:48
So, here's one you're going to get the answer to.
15:50
Which of these is longer?
15:54
So, they're the same. How come? It doesn't really look that way to you.
15:58
You knew that I was tricking you, so you understand,
16:02
well, you still look at it, and think, well, but I'd better check now.
16:05
because I know I'm going to make mistakes.
16:07
Okay, so one more.
16:10
I'll skip the lilac chaser on the other side,
16:13
and just ask you about the stuff on the right.
16:15
Are those lines straight or not?
16:18
Well,they are straight, but to your eyes,
16:20
it's really hard to convince you they're straight.
16:23
Your brain is set to do other things.
16:27
Here's another Bayesian reading test --
16:30
in the land of Bayes that we do it.
16:32
There's many examples you can give this, but a cab was involved in a hit-and-run,
16:36
and two cab companies are in the town,
16:39
green cabs and blue cabs.
16:41
And they operate: 85% of the cabs are green, 15% are blue.
16:46
The witness says the cab was blue.
16:48
When he's tested, he gets it right 80% of the time,
16:50
or she gets it right 80 % of the time.
16:53
What's the probability that it really was a blue cab?
16:55
You have to go through the calculation carefully,
16:58
this is the only equation, usually when I put equations up people go -- but --
17:03
it's almost 60% chance that the cab was green,
17:07
even though this person gets it 80% right.
17:09
And this is relevant, but there are other kinds of test like that.
17:12
So, you can have tests that are even more powerful,
17:14
like the test for breast cancer is 99% correct;
17:17
it gets the wrong answer 1% of the time.
17:19
But roughly a thousand times as many people,
17:22
who... you know, 1,000 of the people that get tested actually have breast cancer,
17:25
so, when you get the first response that you have breast cancer,
17:29
itćs only a 10% that chance you really do, it's not to you get the next test.
17:33
But the10%, you know, the 10 people are freaked out.
17:36
Humans aren't ready for dealing with that kind of thing.
17:40
Okay, so, it's because we lack computing power.
17:43
So, we have compromises in our algorithms, right?
17:46
Humans, therefore, are susceptible to optical illusions,
17:51
systematic errors in judgment -- I'm running out of time --
17:53
I should have gone faster -- I got confident --
17:55
difficulty with complex decisions -- and keeping on time --
17:59
and the ability to function in a prehistoric world,
18:02
which was the important one, you know.
18:03
Only a few percent of the humans got wiped out,
18:06
before they were able to reproduce, okay?
18:08
So, simulations are going to make the same kind or similar approximates.
18:11
So, we have many contradictions.
18:14
We could see if our physics is inconsistent,
18:18
then it's likely we're in a simulation, if physics is self-consistent
18:21
it's more likely we're real, because it just takes more to do that.
18:24
So, then one of the implications is, if we're in a simulated environment
18:29
what we're going to do? Well, we're going to be discretized,
18:32
that is fuzzy on a small scale, we're going to have entangled states,
18:35
it means quantum mechanics. We have the holographic principle,
18:38
that everything inside every environment is enclosed on the surface.
18:41
So, here's an example.
18:43
The hand and the apple
18:45
are encoded on a geometrical sheet but projected into three dimensions,
18:48
that's a way to keep track of everything,
18:50
and the large scale in space and time may not match the small scale.
18:55
So, let me finish up.
18:57
Human beings are ill-equipped for determining reality.
19:00
Physics, so this is actually a selling thing for physics,
19:03
is a fundamental test of our realness. Currently we have contradictions.
19:07
Is that because we're not good at resolving things,
19:10
or is it because we're in a simulation? And what would that mean?
19:14
Thank you.
19:16
(Applause)


Egilsstađir, 16.07.2019 Jónas Gunnlaugsson


Bloggfćrslur 16. júlí 2019

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